FAA Forecasts Show Growth After 2010 Hiccup

By Kim Stevens

 

FAA forecasts show positive, albeit modest, growth across the aviation spectrum once we get beyond 2010. General aviation is the only sector showing some growth in the current year, according to a March 9, 2010 FAA news release. Highlights include the following:

General Aviation

The general aviation fleet increases from 229,149 aircraft in 2009 to 278,723 in 2030, growing an average of 0.9 percent a year.

Fixed-wing turbine aircraft grow at a rate of 3.1 percent per year, fixed-wing piston aircraft grow at a rate of 0.1 percent per year, and rotorcraft grow at a rate of 2.8 percent per year.
General aviation hours flown are forecast to increase from 23.3 million in 2009 to 38.9 million in 2030, an average annual growth rate of 2.5 percent a year.

Fixed-wing turbine aircraft hours flown grow at a rate of 4.6 percent per year, fixed-wing piston aircraft hours flown grow at a rate of 1.0 percent per year, and rotorcraft hours flown grow at a rate of 3.0 percent per year.

FAA WORKLOAD FORECASTS

Operations at Airports with FAA Traffic Control and Contract Tower Service

Total operations are forecast to decrease 2.7 percent to 51.5 million in 2010, and then grow at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent for the remainder of the forecast period, reaching 69.6 million in 2030. The average annual growth rate for the entire 21-year forecast period is 1.3 percent.

Commercial operations decrease 2.2 percent in 2010, and grow at a rate of 1.9 percent thereafter, reaching 32.0 million in 2030.

General aviation operations decrease 3.1 percent in 2010, and grow at a rate of 1.3 percent thereafter, totaling 35.1 million in 2030.

Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Operations

TRACON operations are forecast to decrease 1.1 percent to 39.0 million in 2010, and then grow at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent for the remainder of the forecast period, reaching 54.4 million in 2030. The average annual growth rate for the entire 21-year forecast period is 1.5 percent.

Commercial TRACON operations decrease 1.7 percent in 2010, and grow at a rate of 2.1 percent thereafter, reaching 34.1 million in 2030.

General aviation TRACON operations decrease 0.3 percent in 2010, and grow at a rate of 1.2 percent thereafter, totaling 17.9 million in 2030.

You can reach Kim Stevens with Olsson Associates at kstevens@oaconsulting.com.

 

 

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